What the White House is planning for the next 2 years

On tap after the election: An Iran nuclear deal, a push on trade and the battle to replace Eric Holder

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President Barack Obama at a campaign event for gubernatorial candidate Dan Malloy at Central High School in Bridgeport, Conn., Sunday, Nov. 2, 2014. (Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP)

Life after the midterm elections was never going to be easy for President Barack Obama. In the best-case scenario, he would have watched his influence dwindle steadily as the fight to succeed him heated up. He would have worked to polish his legacy. There would have been work on his “library,” that traditional political-mausoleum project beloved by lame-duck presidents drifting ever closer to the day when they are forgotten but not gone.

But now Obama finds himself pushed toward the sidelines by two potent forces. One is the Republican capture of the Senate as well as major governorships. The other is 
frustrated congressional Democrats’ increasing focus on what the party’s 2016 nominee – potentially Hillary Clinton – needs from them over the next two years.

The president planned the traditional post-election press conference for 2:50 ET Wednesday afternoon, and planned to host House and Senate leaders of both parties at the White House on Friday.

In a series of interviews over the past week, Obama aides, outside advisers and congressional officials of both parties sketched out how the next two years could look as the president tries to shore up his legacy, hunts for a defining second-term achievement and ponders ways to help the Democrat looking to succeed him at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

The Big Fights

Iran. The conventional wisdom that Obama’s biggest achievements are behind him rankles White House aides, who note that the president could seal a nuclear agreement with Iran late this month that could be as important to his second term as Obamacare was to his first. The core of the deal would be to ensure that Tehran does not acquire a nuclear weapon, defusing a standoff that Obama has warned could lead to war. The two sides have set a Nov. 24 deadline for reaching an agreement, though they could push it back if talks look promising.

Trade agreements. Republicans and Democrats in Congress say that free trade could provide fertile ground for bipartisan cooperation next year. Obama has pursued an ambitious regional deal formally known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

But Obama wants Congress to give him “trade promotion authority” (formerly known as “fast track”), which would bind lawmakers to a yes-or-no vote on any agreement he makes – no complications from amendments that would force him back to the negotiating table.

Replacing Eric Holder. On the domestic front, Obama plans to announce his nominee to succeed Attorney General Eric Holder in the “lame-duck” session, with a confirmation vote seen as more likely to come after the new Congress convenes in 2015.

Immigration. Perhaps the most closely watched agenda item in the so-called “lame-duck” session of Congress is immigration. Obama promised earlier this year to take executive action, then opted to hold off until after the election. The question now is whether he pulls the trigger.

The rest of the domestic agenda.

Opportunities for bipartisan action. Confirmation of Obama’s judicial nominees will slow to a trickle, if that, according to Senate aides of both parties. And talk of pushing comprehensive tax reform has dwindled.

The Republican takeover of the Senate won’t suddenly turn the chamber into a legislative powerhouse – and will certainly make it inhospitable to most of Obama’s agenda.
Still, the White House plans to push “items where we continue to believe there is opportunity for cooperation,” like infrastructure spending, or “slightly longer shots,” such as work on early childhood education, a senior Obama aide told Yahoo News.

Playing defense. The White House expects Republicans now in charge of key committees to open investigations of the executive branch, and to make use of their ability to grill key administration officials. Senate Democratic aides predict that the GOP will also act on long-sought items with bipartisan support, like legislation approving the Keystone XL pipeline.

2016. If Hillary Clinton runs for president, Obama’s efforts will be complicated by “the fastest pivot to a presidential election in modern history,” according to a senior Senate Democratic aide. “Between Senate Republicans and an extremely high-profile Democrat, lots of people are looking to pivot to that conversation, and that knocks the president out of the conversation.”

Obama is expected to help the Democratic nominee in 2016, and some White House aides express hopes that Republicans up for re-election in two years in states the president carried in 2012 will be a moderating influence on the rest of the GOP.